I think I've reached my breaking point when it comes to Musclecars. I've been wanting to buy one for a long time and as the prices got higher and higher I set my sights lower and lower.
Well goddamn... I was looking at 1980-81 Trans Am Turbos, arguably the crappiest top of the line TA's ever built, and some were going for as much as 35 grand. FOR A SMOGGER TRANS AM????
Look, this isn't some classic Musclecar. This is the car that many consider to be an embarrasment to Pontiac in general and Firebirds in particular. I could understand the price spike on Super Duty 73 and 74's but those cars made 400+ horsepower and literally bookended the classic musclecar era. 64 GTO started it and 74 Trans Am ended it. But the 1980 Turbo T/A??? You can run circles around it with a Cobalt Sport. It has no pedigree whatsoever except that the black cars make neat Smokey and the Bandit clones.
Or take another, arguably again, much better car. The 1968 to 1970 Dodge Charger. Try to find one on in good shape for under 20 grand. It's ridiculously hard. I've found Ferraris and Lamborghinis that went for less, and were in better shape. It's INSANE. Not just because of sticker shock, but simply because of collector value. I mean a 318 Charger going for 20,000$??? Roughly, they made 250,000 classic Chargers between 68 and 70. How is this rare? Even if only 10% survive that means 25,000 cars. Know how many Ferrari Dino 308 GT4's were made? 2826 total cars made between 1974 and 1980 (and how many of those do you think made it to North America?). Yet they're pretty much in the same price range as the Charger, even when condition is factored in.
There's something wrong here.
In fact, if you do even the simplest math you'll see that numbers don't add up at all. Let's add up most of the true and proper musclecars made between 1964 and 1974:
1968-74 AMC Javelin SST/AMX 102,695
1968-70 AMC AMX (all models) 19,139
1965-72 Buick Grand Sport 132,665
1964-72 Chevrolet Chevelle SS 507,469
1967-74 Chevrolet Camaro SS/Z28 177,249
1968-74 Chevrolet Nova SS 42,783
1964-73 Pontiac GTO 514,793
1967-74 Pontiac Firebird 400/Trans Am 53,523
1964-72 Oldsmobile 4-4-2 165,229
1964-73 Ford Mustang GT/Mach I/Cobra 329,076
1968-71 Ford Fairlane/Torino Cobra/GT 286,395
1967-70 Mercury Cougar XR7/Eliminator 115,829
1968-70 Dodge Charger R/T 48,059
1968-70 Dodge Coronet R/T 20,539
1968-71 Dodge Superbee 51,148
1968-70 Dodge Dart GTS/Swinger 340 71,000
1971-72 Dodge Demon 340 18,798
1970-74 Dodge Challenger R/T 34,556
1968-74 Plymouth Roadrunner 219,556
1970 Plymouth Duster 340 24,817
1968-74 Plymouth 'Cuda 110,459
1967-71 Plymouth GTX 57,347
Rough total: 3,103,123
Even if only 10% of these cars are left, that's still 310,312 musclecars, and I didn't even count them all. After all, a 1968 Plymouth Sport Satellite is just a hair away from being a Roadrunner, as is a base Charger with a 383. Not to mention all the non "official" musclecars like the 440 powered Chryslers or 327 powered Camaros. Ford made 2 million Mustangs between 1964 and 1966 and most had the 2bbl 289 V8, I just counted the K-codes and GTs. I also didn't count all the convertibles; top down motoring is cool regardless of what you have under the hood. I'd be willing to bet that counting all those "near" musclecars would make that number rise to 600,000 or more. That's not a shoddy little number there. Toss in cars from earlier or later than our 1964-74 segment, like a 1957 Chevy or a 1977 Trans Am and that number could be as high as 2 million cars to go around for us enthusiasts.
That's one car per 18 people. Hardly "exotic" when you think about it.
And that's not even taking into account the 1982 and up cars, most of which have survived in numbers a hell of a lot higher than just 10% of their production because of advances in rust prevention. For example, out of the 547 Buick GNX's made, I'd be willing to bet that there's a lot more than just 54 left. There's also the fact that people see those old car prices go up and up and refuse to send even the most trashed car with an SS or a GT in their name to the dump, so even when the thing IS at death's door it'll stay available for a while. Anyway, that's a subject for another discussion. Moving on...
What's causing this spike? Well, I've thought about it and it's 3 things:
#1 The baby boomers are retiring and now finally have the time and money to relive their youth. So a lot of them are buying back the cars of their generation tossing around money because price is no object.
#2 The MTV/Cool factor for young people. Old cars are shown as cool. So kids obviously want one. Not to mention that there's enough trust fund babies in North America to buy a whole crapload of cars.
#3 Investors are playing the market and buying up cars and sticking them in temperature controlled vaults until it's time to trot them out to the next Barrett-Jackson auction and sell them for a profit.
If you want a visual of how solid this whole thing is, think of how stable an upside-down pyramid would be. If those are the 3 most defining factors Musclecars could go the way of the Hot-Rod and return to being just another market segment in one hell of a hurry.
Generally, I see rising insurance as being a problem. Even if you bought your car in 1978 for next to nothing, it's still worth 30 to 100k today and it'll be insured as such. Gas is also gonna be a problem, my old 75 Meteor cost 140$ per fill up and drank the whole tank in 2 days of light driving.
When you own a car just to drive it in a parade it just becomes another lawn ornament.
#1 Yeah the boomers want cool cars and they have more money than god, but they're still stuck in the same predicament as I am. The cars are just getting out of reach for some and there's just so many millionaires out there, and eventually there's gonna be a "AWWWWW SCREW IT!" thing happening.
The youngest generation who could possibly have collective memories of lusting after a musclecar are guys who were around 20 in 1980. Yeah, I know that some of us are much younger and love them, but we're not a whole GENERATION of enthusiasts different thing. And those guys are now 47 years old. So basically this is the highest that those cars can possibly be worth.
Also, when the boomer who bought these cars start dying in another 20 years, bereaved family members are just gonna sell them for "whatever" price. Once that happens, watch the market drop like a rock. They'll be less buyers and more cars on the market.
#2 What's cool one day, won't be tomorrow. Also, a 2007 Mustang GT convertible is roughly as cool looking and a hell of a lot more driveable than a 1967. It's also, at the moment, cheaper.
#3 Investors are the most ruthless people in the world. As soon as the prices stop going up, they're gonna sell off their cars and move on. Cars aren't like stocks or bonds. They need care and maintenance and they take up space. As long as the prices keep going up it doesn't matter, but as soon as the prices stabilize they're gone. So with no one to boost the prices artificially, you'll see a drop.
Are you against the idea of modern muscle? You can get used late model GTOs, Camaros, and TA's for fairly cheap.
Rob
Sold 2/2/05
Naw, I was just completely shocked and taken aback at how high the classic musclecar prices have become. It's come to the point where you can barely buy anything anymore except for the lame late 70's/early 80's musclecars which were everything BUT fast. As for new musclecars I love them! But you can't relive your childhood in a new car. I grew up around a 1961 Pontiac Laurentian, a 1964 Chevrolet Chevelle SS, a 1971 Plymouth Duster 340, a 1968 Dodge Coronet R/T, a 1973 Nova SS, a 1969 Camaro Z/28, a 1967 Plymouth GTX, a 1972 Plymouth Cuda 340, a 1974 AMC Hornet X and a 1969 Mercury Marauder X-100. Only those cars have the smell and the feel of the real thing. New cars aren't and will never be the same.
It's how I always lusted after a 1987-93 Ford Mustang 5.0 convertible as a 16 year old. I could buy a new Mustang, sure, but it'll never be the car I wanted.
I want cars I grew up around, that I touched and rode in and smelled and enjoyed. It's a time machine you know? That's all.
Obviously other people feel the same since the prices are going up, but at the same time I sort of which a little sanity was applied. It's not like there isn't enough old iron to go around. Especially now that the 1967-69 Camaros can be recreated at will.
The solution is fairly easy: Become stupid rich.
Achieving the solution is a little harder.
The good deals are still out there you just have to keep looking...
I seen a decent 81 t/a for $750 on the local craigslist.
I just picked up a 64 fairlane sports coupe with a 289 and thats drivable for $800. It alreadly has some thunderbolt parts on it... Sure it needs work, but it sure beats paying a ton of money for a car thats alreadly done, plus you can build it the way you want and still save $$$. If you can't do the work yourself you might as well forget about it.
I also picked up a solid low mile 69 chevelle roller from a member on this site for $500
The thing about buying a newer car is your always gonna lose money on it. When you buy a classic car it's like money in the bank because they are worth more everyday.
The problem sounds like you are looking for cherry muscle cars, wont find many of them for cheap. The only way to get a good deal on one is to find a run down complete car and build away. One of the easiest ways to make money is to go out driving in the country and finding old cars sitting in fields or bars. Most of the time people are willing to give them to you just to get rid of them. Part them out, make money, go buy one you want and fix it up.
As far as your forecast of the classic car market dropping like a rock, I don't see that happening. Everyday old cars a wrecked, stolen, sent to junk yards and things like that. As time goes on they will only become more and more scarce, which will in turn keep pushing prices up.
If you want a nice muscle car go get a crappy car that needs new quarters and floors and learn how to do metal work. You car save a car that has been in the bottom of a lake for 20 years as long as you know how to fix it. You can always find parts cars and such for parts they dont re-pop.
For me that is the only solution because I cant afford a 10K - 20K car so I build them myself, over time. Right now I am building a 67 Pontiac Tempest post drag car and a 63 Chevy C-10 with 30.000 original miles (picked the truck up complete for $500.00)
KevinP (Stabby McShankyou) wrote:
and I'm NOT a pedo. everyone knows i've got a wheelchair fetish.
I blame Barret Jackson.
Thats ok though, I love owning an old car that just keeps increasing in value,
Worth even more if I actually work on it!
Oh and screw muscle cars classic and antiques are way cooler
How many steps to heaven, Doc?
...Ah, metaphysics.
seriously where the feg are you looking where those cars are that much?
ive been to car shows, where people are trying to sell FULLY restored 100% MINT condition cars for less than what you are spewin
and thats at a car show where car enthusiasts are expected to be
themarin8r wrote:seriously where the feg are you looking where those cars are that much?
ive been to car shows, where people are trying to sell FULLY restored 100% MINT condition cars for less than what you are spewin
and thats at a car show where car enthusiasts are expected to be
35,000$ 1980 Turbo Trans Am
I think I may be spending too much time on eBay.
You also all have restored my belief in a car brotherhood. I love you guys
Anyway, my whole point was that I'm seeing prices rise when there's still a whole crapload of cars out there. Yeah, some cars do end up in the scrapyard, but that's a rare thing. Even with massive frame damage the cars are way too expensive to just throw away. Let's say you scrap your 1969 Camaro Z/28, it'll be worth the 20,000$ for someone to restore it because the car is worth almost twice that in mint condition. That's the result of price hikes. Nobody dares throw anything away. That's why I almost laugh at the uber expensive Buick Grand Nationals since most (at least 80% of them) are still around and Buick did make quite a few of them.
Again, thanks. I feel better now.
So... Umm... where SHOULD I look for 1961-81 era Musclecars?
the only way a camaro is worth 40g's is if most of the parts are original stock, or new old stock
cars that are resto-mods or restored with reproduced parts are not worth as much
like my car, if it was more orignal parts then it would be worth prolly 6-7k more
its all about original parts and vehicle codes
the more it matches, the more it will be worth
and sometimes you basically are paying for a VIN in the case of a rare car that is beat to @!#$
bottom line...
people who were born in that era are coming of age and trying to relive their youth.
granted kids of that day and age probably drooled over ferraris and such but muscle cars are what the majority remember seeing as kids or teenagers. now they have the money to afford them...
honestly if you ask anybody alive in the 60's what cars they wish they had or remember dreaming about, i'll bet you'd find 80-90% mention a charger, challenger, camaro, mustang, amx, javelin, etc... not just that any car with tv or movie icon status (aka trigger, general lee, etc) will be all the more collectible. honestly, who doesn't want to own the general lee or trigger (the bandit's trans am for those who don't know what i'm talkin about)
If I am not wrong but didnt the 87 Buick GNX end the muscle car era.. lol i want to see a cobalt hang with one of those..
My first car was 68 Javelin SST. Ran and drove great, complete, very very tiny bit of rust. Sold it for $1900.
I agree, muscle cars are getting pricey, but thats just the way the market is looking. The hot ticket right now are 32 fords. Ten years ago it was the 55-6-7 Chevys. 5 years ago you couldnt give 4 door bodies away, now they are fetching a good price, while hardtops are skyrocketing. 49-54 Fords and Chevys are on deck to launch in price here pretty soon, where as 5 years ago they were dirt cheap. Im gettin real excited for that
The muscle cars are hot again because of the renewed interest in them generated by the new Mustang and Camaro.
Just gotta follow the trends. And quit looking on ebay. Although, a guy on the HAMB just bought a deuce body for $800, something that could easily be flipped for $10k. Go to car shows, drive around neighborhoods. The city just north of me has neighborhoods full of old cars just sitting. You could knock on a door and make an offer.
And KEN, the true muscle car era ended in 1974.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edited Wednesday, September 12, 2007 3:49 PM
I got lucky and paid $500 for my 73 nova body with possi rear-end and turbo 350 transmission. I think I've got a total of $2k in the car with motor and interior work. I don't think I'd sell it anytime soon...especially if its worth 40k when I get done...lol
Good luck in the search man...I'd stay away from ebay...large car shows like the rod run and super chevy are the best time to buy one...wait till the last day of a big show when someone was really hoping to get rid of the car...you can get good deals that way...
~Kilo
themarin8r wrote:the only way a camaro is worth 40g's is if most of the parts are original stock, or new old stock
cars that are resto-mods or restored with reproduced parts are not worth as much
like my car, if it was more orignal parts then it would be worth prolly 6-7k more
its all about original parts and vehicle codes
the more it matches, the more it will be worth
and sometimes you basically are paying for a VIN in the case of a rare car that is beat to @!#$
I guess it's because I'm still stuck in the late 80's where you pretty much HAD to get a numbers matching car with all original parts. The idea of buying a Lemans and making it into a GTO was ridiculous. That's why you can still find beautiful, pristine base model cars from the 60's today, nobody was buying them 17 years ago, but they were too nice to junk. Anyway, yeah you're right, I gotta stop looking for the originals because I'm just gonna tear my hair out.
Quote:
Well goddamn... I was looking at 1980-81 Trans Am Turbos, arguably the crappiest top of the line TA's ever built, and some were going for as much as 35 grand. FOR A SMOGGER TRANS AM????
You can partly Blame Hemmings for that. They recently did an article on them in Muscle Machines I think, might have been Classic Cars, anyways it seems when they do articles about some cars the owners of said cars sometimes bump the prices up. It's @!#$ ridiculous what some morons will pay for muscle cars without much muscle or in horrible rusted almost beyond repair shape.
Personally I've always wanted a 69 Charger and was recently checking out one of the musclecar or Hemmings magazines and found half of one for somewhere in the $10,000 range. At least most of the GM G bodies are still cheap except for the Cutlasses thanks to the morons blinging them out with giant rims.
Lets not forget about Old car bodies forn the 20's,30's & 40's most of them are going for ridiculous prices just for a frame and or rusted half of the Body.
If you want a good musclecar get a Ls1 you can find them for under 10k now
GTOs well under 20k now as well
Old stuff about ive looked around for a 66 289 4 speed mustang and the going rate for a good one is about 10-15, if they need some work as low as 5k
1989 Turbo Trans Am #82, 2007 Cobalt SS G85
Knoxfire wrote:
What's causing this spike? Well, I've thought about it and it's 3 things:
Don't forget #4: Agustin hogging musclecars to himself.
LOL
Seriously, maybe it's where you live. You can get old Chevys and Fords cheap all day long here in California. The Dodge's are always expensive, though, but I think that has a lot to do with the ridiculous amount of money a HEMI crate motor costs.
---
Meh.. Muscle cars are fun, but as much as I like them, I could only get 6 months a year tops out of one.
Also, I couldn't have one for long without wanting a lot more out of it. If I had the money and inclination, I'd buy a bottom of the barell (but complete and rolling or at least rust free) 70's Firebird and go to f**king town on it, number correctness and all the rest be damned. Would I tear into a fully restored 10th anniversary T/A or a superduty? Not on your life. Would I spend 100,000 on buying one in the first place? not likely either.
I think part of the fun of these cars is making it your own.
Knoxfire wrote:themarin8r wrote:seriously where the feg are you looking where those cars are that much?
ive been to car shows, where people are trying to sell FULLY restored 100% MINT condition cars for less than what you are spewin
and thats at a car show where car enthusiasts are expected to be
35,000$ 1980 Turbo Trans Am
Dude, that car has less than 6,000 miles on it.. of course it's going to be expensive.
1983 Camaro Z28
3 letters G.T.O. nuff said course I'm biased though a 1st gen camaro convertible is my 2nd choice
I got my 77 Camaro back when I graduated (1992) for $1500. At that time it had a 305ci...ewww. Has a 350ci in it now though.
I've dumped over $17k over the years I've had it, but I will never get near any of it back.
I'm in the process of selling mine now and NADA shows a range of $4400-Low\ $8965 -average\ $12,925 high. I have mine priced at $5400 so we'll see what happens. I've had an offer for $4k already...lol.
Okay KEN 5.7, the GNX marked the begining of the second muscle-car era. Knoxfire, I feel for you & more... even old econo cars like Gremlin, Pinto & the General's T-car (Chevrolet Chevette, Pontiac 1000) are all going for more than they did in the day (Notice it's all the RWD econo models that are rising in price). And it could be worse... someone could want that much for a '82-'86 Firebird with the Iron Duke, like my elementary school counselor had. Yes, they did build 4-cyl powered 3rd-gen F-bodies, and they all came with TBI to produce 90hp net, and were available with the 700R4 (4L60). Betcha those are alot rare-er than any small amount of popular cars. Hey, ever hear of the Bluebird? Probably rare-er still. one last thing: Tribals, friends of mine found the only real shortcoming of the 305 was lack of heads. Otherwise you had to build it like any undersquare engine: focus on the dynamics a long stroke w/ low compression would have.
Go beyond the "bolt-on".
im not going to read everyones responses but i will say they are way to expensive if everything is original. but this car is amazing.
SnazziZ24 wrote:I got lucky and paid $500 for my 73 nova body with possi rear-end and turbo 350 transmission. I think I've got a total of $2k in the car with motor and interior work. I don't think I'd sell it anytime soon...especially if its worth 40k when I get done...lol
Good luck in the search man...I'd stay away from ebay...large car shows like the rod run and super chevy are the best time to buy one...wait till the last day of a big show when someone was really hoping to get rid of the car...you can get good deals that way...
~Kilo
A 1984 Chevrolet Camaro Z/28 (with 34,000 original miles and T-Tops I believe) went for about $20,000 at a used car dealership in my area, that's unbelievable. On the flip side, I visited a car show back about a month ago where a older gentleman was selling his show quality 8 cylinder 1982 Chevrolet Camaro (with 81,000 miles, 2nd owner) for $6,000 (still for sale if you're interested). I agree it's in all where you look. If you go to a car show with real enthusiasts you can get a good quality classic car at a decent price. If you look to go through a classic car dealership or at auction, expect to pay a lot more than what you should.
Don't give up man, you'll sure to find something that you want at a decent price.
